One of the new fads for fantasy football for the last couple of years has been the auction draft. It has become very popular; to the point where every league that I am a member of does an auction draft. The ESPN standard budget for an auction draft is $200, and the standard league is 10 teams which are the two assumptions I will be basing these recommendations on. There are two main strategies for an auction: go big on 2 or 3 players, or spread your money out and go for value. I have seen competitive teams fielded with both strategies, but I think spreading your money out and going for value is the most consistent at producing a winning team.
Each year, I look at the positions with low depth for areas that I am willing to overspend on. This year, QB and TE have premium players at the top, but are not very deep. This is where you should spend your money this year! I try to spread my money around by taking two players in the $30 range, a couple at $20, and the rest at whatever value they fall to. This year, I would feel comfortable spending around $50 on a Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Stafford at QB. They are THAT GOOD. Ideally I would go for Stafford because I think he will not require the premium price the other QB's will. TE is the other area I would feel comfortable spending $30 or more on Jimmy Graham at. Many favor Gronkowski, but he is overvalued right now and you will be paying too much to get him. Once you secure your QB and TE, then you draft value on RB's and WR. DON'T overpay for a WR this year. The talent is very deep at this position. RB are not what they used to be. I do not feel comfortable placing the burden of a $60 price tag on a first round RB because there is so much injury risk to the position. Split that money among Stephen Jackson and Fred Jackson and you get two starters and money left over. The last bit of advice I would give is to spend only $1 on a kicker and defense. If you really like a team and spend $2 or $3 to get their defense I understand, you want your favorites so that isn't the end of the world. Anything other than that and you are wasting money. Also, NEVER draft a second defense or kicker! With all of this to consider, I will leave you with an example team that I would be thrilled to have. I will post their projected ESPN value because it is impossible to simulate who will go for more than projected in each individual league.
10 Team $200 budget
QB Matt Stafford - $45
RB Stephen Jackson - $25
RB Fred Jackson - $23
Flex Jeremy Maclin - $15
WR Julio Jones - $23
WR Percy Harvin - $15
TE Jimmy Graham - $32
K Anyone that kicks in a dome $1
DEF Anyone other than the Vikings $1
BE Peyton Hillis $7
BE David Wilson $5
BE Backup QB $1 (Josh Freeman is projected $4, but would be a steal if you could get him)
BE High Upside RB/WR $2
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside WR $3
Following this format will guarantee you a team that is competitive every week. All you need is one of your upside picks to contribute to the team. I hope this helps, good luck!
What would be your draft strategy in a snake? I feel like there is a lot of upside with qb's that are considered middle of the pack right now -- peyton (because he's peyton), cutler (brandon marshall now on team), and rivers. I'm thinking of going stud rb in 1st, TE in 2nd, WR in 3 & 4, maybe Vernon Davis or QB in 5, then stacking up on under the radar wr's and rb's the rest of the way, assuming 2 or 3 will be solid contributors (titus, britt when back from injury, malcolm floyd, ryan willaims, reuben randle, david wilson, kendall hunter, daniel thomas with an inevitable regie bush injury, randall cobb, hillman in denver). in the 8 mock drafts i've done, i've seen that it's possible to get all of these players. this is the first year that ive really paid a lot of attention to preseason and putting a lot of thought into my draft. i usually try to fish the waiver wire all year and get lucky, but i realize that success stems from the draft and recognizing value. what kind of success rate do these hyped nobodies usually have?
ReplyDeleteAs far as a snake draft goes, it all depends on what pick you have. If you have a top 3 pick, Rice, Foster, and McCoy would be a great choice and your strategy that you described is what I would do. I would say Rodgers has to be the next one off the board after those three (You could trade him later). Philip Rivers is a great choice if you want to wait. I'm actually writing a post about him right now. His perceived value is very low and I fully expect him to bounce back. Depending on if you get a QB or RB in the 1st, I would most likely get a RB in the 3rd or 4th. WR is very deep so waiting for guys is not a problem. The picks you mentioned are all excellent picks (titus through hillman). Those are the kind of players you want that late in the draft, all high upside. The hyped players are generally just hype. We hear coverage about certain "sleepers" and think they will be top 10 players. If you manage your expectations to the "starter" level, then you will find a decent amount of the hyped players do turn out to contribute.
ReplyDeleteYeah, this is brilliant. I'm occasionally taking Cam or Rivers+Ryan. If I don't get Graham (nominate him first if Gronk hasn't gone yet), I spend more on RB.I'm getting Antonio Brown under $10 at WR4 often then nothing but upside RB's late: Ryan Williams, Jennings, Kevin Smith. If I get a deal on Charles or AP, I always get Hillis and K. Smith for early week safety. (One dude mocked Hillis up to 13 before I gave up! Was that you?)
ReplyDeleteBrain Smith
QB Philip Rivers 14
RB Steven Jackson 25
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 15
WR Brandon Lloyd 18
WR A.J. Green 24
TE Jimmy Graham 31
FLEX Fred Jackson 23
D/ST Seahawks D/ST 1
K David Akers 1
BE Brandon Marshall 16
BE Peyton Hillis 8
BE Reggie Wayne 5
BE Matt Ryan 8
BE Isaac Redman 3
BE Pierre Garcon 4
BE Robert Griffin III 3
Total: 199
Remaining: 1
Okay, no need for Wayne of Garcon, right?
Nice work! This is a sick team that you put together. I can't believe you were able to get Marshall for $16!
DeleteWell this was only a mock, so that explains some of it. Here was a real one last night. Someone was inexperienced and there was some craziness.
DeleteLeggo My Gecko
QB Cam Newton 27
RB Fred Jackson 23
RB Adrian Peterson 31
WR Victor Cruz 23
WR Miles Austin 15
TE Jacob Tamme 2
FLEX Steven Jackson 25
D/ST Texans D/ST 3
K Mason Crosby 1
BE Percy Harvin 18
BE Antonio Brown 10
BE Ryan Williams 1
BE Ben Tate 5
BE Rashad Jennings 2
BE Kevin Smith 6
BE Andrew Luck 3
Total: 195
Remaining: 5
Rivers($12) and Ryan($13) were nominated early, so I had a suspicion Cam might go cheap. I nominated Graham early, but someone threw out $47, and then got Finley as well! Austin was a misclick, but oh well. I got my Kicker bids raised twice, Gostkowski and Kaeding. I opened with the Seahawks as one of the first D and got outbid. I ended up with too much money at the end. So Mr. Obvious says, "Drafts are unpredictable."
Hahaha, they are very unpredictable. I really like that team though, every bench player has great upside. I would take that team any day, it should be competitive each week. Whoever paid $47 for Graham went a little overboard in my opinion so Tamme for $2 isn't terrible. You have enough depth to trade for a position you need later in the year.
DeleteIn what world do Green and Marshall go for that cheap? That is an amazing squad.
DeleteCheck it out, had my draft last night what do you think? altered startegy a bit based on the fact that every team took a qb pre-round 6. 10-team league
ReplyDeletePeyton Manning
Marshawn
Reggie
Demaryius
Calvin
Lloyd
Gronk
49ers
Hanson
Bench:
cutler
tate
hillis
kendall hunter
cobb
r moss
j baldwin
Peyton and Cutler should be good enough alternating them each week so that will work. I'm not sold on your two starting RB's, but the rest of the team is solid!
DeleteWhat spot did you have Cullen... 6, 7, 8? Gronk in round 2, Lynch in 3? I am having trouble with the rankings value between 7 and 20, would rather trade down like Belichik! For me after the top 3 RB go, I'd rather wait until round 3, but that makes me nervous.
DeletePick6, any advice for draft positions 7-10 this year? I take it you might go Stafford, Graham, RB, RB, WR, WR/RB....
7-10 is definitely the toughest spot to be in this year. Yes, You are pretty much right on for the position draft order. No TE in first round, but second I would agree with that and take Graham. If Calvin falls I would take him, but otherwise no WR until at least 3rd round. Here is my top 10 for the draft at this point
Delete1. LeSean McCoy
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Chris Johnson
6. Darren McFadden
7. Calvin Johnson
8. Tom Brady
9. Matt Stafford
10. MJD/Drew Brees
I got the 6th pick, and here is my reasoning behind my picks: I'm anti-RB after winning last year with bush and spiuller in the championnship game and getting burned by rb's by committee. too many stud rb's got hurt last year. and really, do I pass up Calvin at pick #6 to get MJD or CJ0k or Run DMC? MJD can hold out, CJ0k could suck again this year, and DMC could be out 6 or more games. Honestly i think CJ0k will never come close to living up to his lofty prediction for himself, and the fantasy football world has been slow to realize that. 4 out of the 7 top backs in the game last year either went out with injury and missed close to or more than half the season, or their name was Chris Johnson. the only top tier rb's i trust are the big 3 and they were gone by my 1st round choice. I'm of the mindset that if you can grab an outlier at a position (calvin at wr, gronk at te, SF D) even if it is at a position like D, you should overpay a bit for it because you not only get their insane point amounts but you keep other teams from getting them. Esp at positions that are shallow and lend to inconsitency (D & TE). I like to think in terms of point swings. i LOVE my wr's and the potential of my backup RB's. a case can be made for each of my starting wr's to be all top-10 wr's. cj was 1 last year, lloyd was top 3 2 years ago and now has brady and a mcdaniel reunion, and d thomas is a freak and now has manning throwing to him. wayne was a top 10 in 06, 07, 09, and 10 with manning. i trust that manning's #1 receiver will easily be a top 10. all of my backup rb's are an injury away from just exploding. pickers have tate as a top 10 if foster goes down, hillis is getting 250 carries and goal line according to reports, and kendall hunter is next in line for a worn out gore. i mean there are A LOT of if's on my team, but you gotta take the high risk to get the high reward. and i prefer guys on the upswing than guys who have stayed static for the last 2-3 years. if you look no one on my team besides manning and cj were even relevant in the 2010 draft. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE YOUNG GUNS BABY! TAKIN OVER THE LEAGUE!
DeleteI completely agree with taking the upside guys. McFadden has the talent to be the #1 player in fantasy dependent on health which is why I am so high on him. Chris Johnson will be back this year don't worry. I don't expect him near 2,000 yards, but I believe he is a top 5 back. The question that comes into play with where Calvin goes is which gap you think is bigger: The difference between Calvin and the rest of the WR or the gap between the top 5 RB I listed and the rest of the RB. This year I think the gap is bigger with the RB because of so many RB by committee. However the RB have a greater chance of getting hurt. I think I can get WR that will do the job later in the draft which is why I am sold on RB/QB in the first
DeleteSo what do you do in a league where everyone goes over priced? I just had an auction with 10 teams $200, 16 players on a team. Rodgers went for $75, Brady $72, Rice $71, Gronk $47, even mid tier running backs were going for 30-40 and it is a TD heavy league. Do you wait and get you pickings of mid-level guys and take the silo approach? I ended up getting Brady and Gronk, plus spending another $60 on B. Marshall and S. Jackson. But pretty much have no running backs after that.
ReplyDeleteWhen everyone is going over priced you need to pick your one or two over bids wisely. You do need to pay for a couple stars that provide consistency, but the main strategy is to take the best players available. The deeper your team is, the better you will be able to handle injuries. Also, you will have the depth to make a trade later in the season. By having many good players instead of a few great players, you can spread your risk and trade for the guys that are performing well.
DeleteI have been toying with the idea of buying both Gronk AND Jimmy Graham. With the scarcity in TE, and the Flex spot now open to TEs,I feel that this would give me a significant competitive advantage. Of course I'd be spending $60 on TEs. Just curious as to your thoughts on this, thanks!
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't do it. It will cost you more than $60 dollars, and both are being overbid right now. I would let someone else in the league blow some money on the other elite TE
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