Studs & Duds - QB's

Studs

Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady
These two QB's are definitely above the rest of the pack. Each offense has so many explosive weapons, and the consistency has been there for years for each of these guys. I leave Brees out of this category this year because of the off-season scandal the Saints have been dealing with, and he also just received a huge new contract. Brady and Rodgers are so consistent and reliable that they should each be valued as a first round pick. The only goal of the first round is to not lose the league based on your pick. The consistency Brady and Rodgers provide should not be overlooked.

Phillip Rivers
His stock has never been this low before. He had one of his worst statistical years last year, but it was still good enough to rank 9th among QB's. Worst year and finishing in the top 10? Not to mention he is going for about 20% of the price of the top QB's. Rivers has plenty of options to throw to still even with Vincent Jackson gone. Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Vincent Brown are all quality targets. The Chargers will not get away from throwing the ball because Ryan Mathews has proven that he cannot stay healthy. Rivers is a very safe pick if you miss out on one of the top tier QB's, and selecting him can allow you to use a pick or auction dollars on other positions.

Carson Palmer
I wouldn't count on having Palmer as your starting QB just yet, but last year he showed that he can still play. From November on, he finished in the top 10 in many major passing categories. With promising WR's Moore and Heyward-Bey, Palmer can do some damage. Darren McFadden should also help out Palmer's stock. McFadden is one of the best backs in the game when healthy, but the Raiders can't afford to have him  out there every play because of how injury prone he is. McFadden should provide the threat to keep defenses honest, but Palmer will get plenty of chances to throw to keep McFadden fresh. Use Palmer as an insurance policy and backup with some high upside.

Michael Vick
After the miracle season in 2010, the big question heading into the 2011 drafts was "should Vick be the No. 1 pick?" Anyone who did make him the No. 1 pick made a mistake. Vick is very injury prone, so when drafting him make sure to have a good backup (i.e. Carson Palmer). It is clear that Vick was over-valued last year. This year it seems like people have forgotten that he has the ability to be a top 5 QB. I would compare his value to that of Darren McFadden; top 5 potential, but the injury risk is very real. Overall, expect Vick's value to be between last year and his 2010 campaign. Be smart, buy low on him now.

Duds

Eli Manning
Matthew Berry makes a great case against Eli Manning this year. He references Eli in his "Love/Hate" Column. Eli has great weapons in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, but the Giants have been a running team and will get back to that again this year. The stats he put up last year were a career year, which is another reason to stay away from him. His stock has never been higher, so ask yourself: Do you want to buy into a player when their value has reached its peak, or should you save a pick or some auction dollars and get someone who will put up the same fantasy stats? (Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers will produce identical numbers and are going much cheaper/later)

Peyton Manning
A healthy Peyton Manning is a no question top 10 QB even at this point in his career. Right now, perception is placing too much value on him right now. He didn't play a game last season, and I am not convinced that one hit could end his career by tweaking his neck. He has also played in a dome for the majority of his career, and he is now moving outside in Denver. The risk is just too high for where Peyton is being drafted this year. There are much safer plays to go with on the board.

Matt Schaub
I really do like the Texans, but I don't think that Matt Schaub is going to have much to offer this year for fantasy value. This is Arian Foster's offense now. Also, Andre Johnson can't be counted on like he used to be. His talent is there, but he is a major injury risk. Schaub doesn't have much to throw to this year other than Andre (when healthy) and a finally healthy Owen Daniels. With so much success on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, Matt Schaub won't be called on to provide an aerial assault this season.

Andy Dalton
Don't get me wrong, I love and Dalton. As a rookie, he was phenomenal. I think that he has a great career ahead of him, but his role is more of a game manager. He makes the throws when he needs to, but he won't be throwing the ball all day long. I think we should expect a small improvement from last year in terms of fantasy points, but expect consistency from Dalton not high scoring numbers. Dalton is a great QB that will win games for Cincinnati, he just isn't the fantasy football type of QB.