LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, & Ray Rice
These three will often be the top 3 picks in fantasy drafts this year. They are obviously in a league of their own.
Chris Johnson
I am a strong believer in a bounce back season. With a full camp and preseason, Johnson should be in shape and hungry to restore his reputation as one of the best RB's in the league. Add to that a more promising QB, a better O-line, and a playbook that features more of his trademark cutback plays and this is a recipe for success. The Titans are expected to decrease his carries a little bit, but this doesn't matter because of Johnson's effectiveness as a pass catcher. Expect big things, but probably not quite top 3 level like we were used to in 2010.
Darren McFadden
I expect a top 5 finish if not better from McFadden this year. That includes a buffer for missing two games due to an injury at some point. He is the unquestioned workhorse in Oakland, and Michael Bush isn't around anymore to steal goal line carries. The talent is there, just make sure to draft a suitable replacement for the time that McFadden will most likely miss this season.
Fred Jackson
After a broken leg ended his season, I expect Jackson to bounce back this year. The numbers he put up last year were amazing, and still he doesn't receive credit like he should. Buffalo isn't going to throw all day with Fitzpatrick at QB, and C.J. Spiller was less than impressive after taking over last year. At his current draft spot, I think Jackson provides the best value at the RB position.
David Wilson
Anyone who saw his latest preseason game against the Bears would agree with me on this one. Wilson looked great breaking off some long runs and catching some passes out of the backfield. I love the rookie this year because I think he will be working to slide into the lead back role for next season. He has the backup job locked up, so if Bradshaw goes down he will have his chance to start. Bradshaw is known for being a bit injury prone so Wilson will get his looks this year. Wilson is the RB to own for the Giants this year.
Duds
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is a scary pick this year. There is just too much risk to justify drafting him in the first or early second round, which is where he has been going. The possible suspension as well as a poor offensive line and offense in general don't bode well. We also don't know which Marshawn Lynch will show up. He went into full beast mode last year, but will he be the same? I'm not buying it. Regardless, his value is not that of a first or early second rounder.
Patriots' & Panthers' RB's
These two teams are the worst when it comes to RB splits. Do not ever draft any of these teams RB's as a starter on any team! Their consistency is so unpredictable that you will be sweating on game day for them to even break 10 yards. These two teams shuffle the workload so unpredictably that it is possible for them to put up a zero in any given week, which is the worst in fantasy football. Consistency is what is prized most, which is why these RB's should only be drafted for bye week fill-ins.
Trent Richardson
I love Trent Richardson's long term prospects, but this year I am not buying in. With a fellow rookie at QB, the learning curve is going to be steep. Add to that no real threats (Greg Little isn't that good) at WR, and defenses are sure to key in on Richardson. Coaches and ownership will want to preserve Richardson for a long career, so don't expect him to put up tons of carries when the games won't matter. Also, his knee surgery isn't the best way to start the season. I am skeptical of a lingering injury that won't allow him to be at full strength. The cards seem stacked against him this year.
Michael Turner
Turner's days as an elite back are done. This year he should be considered a #2 back. With his age and the Falcons' ability to throw the ball, there is no upside here. I would expect 15 carries a game from Turner; nothing more, nothing less. He managed only 2 100 yard games for the second half of the season last year which I think signals his slow down. I don't like drafting guys with no upside, but then again he should have a floor of about 15 carries a game. Just know what you are getting in Turner this year.
Mark Ingram
The former 1st round pick is starting to look like a bust. He has had multiple knee and toe surgeries in his short career which should bring up some red flags. Also bring into consideration the fact that when he is healthy, he gets about 10 carries a game. These numbers shouldn't change this year, and any breakout ideas can be forgotten.
No comments:
Post a Comment