Pick 6
Giving your fantasy football team the inside edge!
September 16, 2012
Pick 6 - Week 2
The first Week of the season has come and gone, and now some of the surprises are out of the box. Here is Week 2's Pick 6 edition. Last week was a decent start to picks and I am pretty confident about these.
6 to Start
Cam Newton - Cam will be back to his old self in this game. I fully expect this to be an offensive shootout, and Cam will get it done with his legs and the with his arm. The Panthers are going to need to put up a lot of points to keep up with Brees, and you know those points aren't going to come from any of the RB's after how poor the run game went last week.
Jamaal Charles - Charles has amazing career numbers against the Bills. He is also hungry to prove he is back. He had a decent Week 1 with about 80 yards, but expect him to be more involved in the passing game as well this week. I am extremely high on him.
Stevan Ridley - He showed that he was capable of handling the load in Week 1, so expect more of the same this week. They play an Arizona team that should also be down most of the game which means many rushing attempts. For the first time in a long time, I believe in a Patriots RB.
Eric Decker - The Falcons lost a starting corner this week, so expect Peyton to pick this defense apart. This game should be very high scoring and filled with a lot of passing attempts from both sides. Expect Asante Samuel to key in on Thomas so Decker can roam free.
Marques Colston - Had 11 targets in Week 1 and there is nothing to indicate that will change. This will be a shootout so Colston will be very active today.
Aaron Hernandez - This is my gut call of the year, and I think it will start to play out today. Hernandez goes for 2 TD's in his rise to the top fantasy TE on the Pats. Gronkowski is going to be a great distraction this year taking most of the attention in the offense.
6 to Sit
Michael Vick - I expect him to be great this season, but this isn't the game he gets back on track. His top two targets are battling injuries and will not be at full strength. Also, Baltimore isn't exactly the easiest of defenses to go up against.
Chris Johnson - At this point, I would say make him prove something. I would consider him a flex option right now. He has burnt so many people based on his reputation from the 2010 season. Make him show up before you rely on him again.
Trent Richardson - I like that he is the only back for Cleveland, but the offense is just not in sync right now. Brandon Weeden needs to get settled in and take some pressure off of the running game before Richardson can become a reliable option. I like his prospects for later in the year, but he is just too risky right now.
Vincent Jackson - Josh Freeman had just over a hundred passing yards last week which shows this offense is committed to the run. Freeman and Jackson connected on less than half of their targets, so their are clearly some kinks that still need to be worked out. I think the future looks bright for Jackson, but just wait until he and Freeman prove their chemistry is better before you start him.
DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin - Obviously I like these two guys for the season, but if you have another option this week I would stay away. Both are banged up, and Vick needs to get out of his funk. Both WR's are going to be monitored during the game, so just because they are playing doesn't mean they will see as many snaps as they usually do. I would go with a healthier option if you have one.
Philip Rivers - I feel bad for the guy. He has no weapons to work with. Antonio Gates is questionable, so he will only have Meachem and Floyd to throw to. That's not terrible, but add in the fact that his O-line is brutal and the running game isn't great with Mathews not at full strength and you have a recipe for disaster. Nothing is going Phil's way right now.
September 6, 2012
Pick 6 - Week 1
This is the first Pick 6 post of the season so I will explain how it works a little bit. Each week I am going to pick 6 guys that I think will put up great numbers each week and 6 guys that I think are going to put up sub-par numbers. I am going to try to focus on people that may be on the bubble for who you might start each week on a fantasy team. So for example, I don't want to waste your time by telling you to start Calvin Johnson because he is a must start each week. Week 1 is the hardest to predict, but here we go...
6 to Start
DeAngelo Williams - Start him this week because I probably won't be recommending this again all year. He plays against Tampa Bay this week and if anyone remembers anything about their defense from last year it was that they can't stop the run. Add to that Jonathan Stewart being banged up and it is looking like D-Willy will get more touches than usual this week.
Doug Martin - Sticking with the TB vs CAR game, I think it will feature a lot of running. Tampa Bay's identity was a run first team last year, and that should continue against a Carolina team that is below average against the run. Martin seems to have a sizable lead on the workload over Blount so expect a lot of touches.
Jay Cutler - I am not a huge Cutler fan, but this week he gets to face off against the Colts. This defense was absolutely terrible last year and it didn't improve much in the off-season. Expect him to test out his new toy Brandon Marshall in this game. The only foreseeable problem in this one could be the Bears getting up early and not throwing as much in the second half.
Antonio Brown - Mike Wallace missed almost the entire pre-season so he will still be getting used to the offense. Todd Haley runs a more conservative offense which will play well to Brown's shorter routes. The offensive line has also been shaky so this should also be a reason to go shorter routes in this game.
Darrius Heyward-Bey - With many injuries in the WR corps in Oakland, he may be the only one to throw to this weekend. He has some breakout potential this season, and looks to be the #1 target this weekend. As long as Carson Palmer plays better than he has in the pre-season, expect Heyward-Bey to take off this weekend.
Jared Cook - This offense has to throw to somebody. Nate Washington isn't the most reliable #1 target, and Kendall Wright is playing in his first regular season game. Expect Cook to be heavily involved in the passing game. The Titans play the Pats so they will be throwing early and often.
6 to Sit
Peyton Manning - He will be rusty since this is his first game back, and he needs to prove that he can take a hit. The big thing here is to manage expectations. Don't expect the Peyton we are used to seeing. 200 yards and 2 td's is reasonable.
Reggie Bush - I know the Dolphins offense doesn't have any play-makers other than Bush, but they won't be running the ball much. The Texans should be up big forcing the Dolphins to pass, and their run-D is pretty good in the first place.
Marshawn Lynch - I don't trust him this week mostly because of the injury. He missed some time for back problems last year, and this is the same thing that might limit him this week. Expect the Russel Wilson show in this game.
DeSean Jackson - Don't expect much this week. The Browns have a great pass defense, so the Eagles will likely chose to use the ground game.
Dwayne Bowe - I am predicting a slow start for Bowe this year. He missed a lot of training camp, and this particular match-up positions him against Asante Samuel. Look for the Chiefs to stick to the running game in this one.
Jermaine Gresham - I like his ability for this season, but I do not like his role. The Bengals will use him to block a lot in this game. Also, the Ravens gave up the 2nd fewest points to TE's last season.
6 to Start
DeAngelo Williams - Start him this week because I probably won't be recommending this again all year. He plays against Tampa Bay this week and if anyone remembers anything about their defense from last year it was that they can't stop the run. Add to that Jonathan Stewart being banged up and it is looking like D-Willy will get more touches than usual this week.
Doug Martin - Sticking with the TB vs CAR game, I think it will feature a lot of running. Tampa Bay's identity was a run first team last year, and that should continue against a Carolina team that is below average against the run. Martin seems to have a sizable lead on the workload over Blount so expect a lot of touches.
Jay Cutler - I am not a huge Cutler fan, but this week he gets to face off against the Colts. This defense was absolutely terrible last year and it didn't improve much in the off-season. Expect him to test out his new toy Brandon Marshall in this game. The only foreseeable problem in this one could be the Bears getting up early and not throwing as much in the second half.
Antonio Brown - Mike Wallace missed almost the entire pre-season so he will still be getting used to the offense. Todd Haley runs a more conservative offense which will play well to Brown's shorter routes. The offensive line has also been shaky so this should also be a reason to go shorter routes in this game.
Darrius Heyward-Bey - With many injuries in the WR corps in Oakland, he may be the only one to throw to this weekend. He has some breakout potential this season, and looks to be the #1 target this weekend. As long as Carson Palmer plays better than he has in the pre-season, expect Heyward-Bey to take off this weekend.
Jared Cook - This offense has to throw to somebody. Nate Washington isn't the most reliable #1 target, and Kendall Wright is playing in his first regular season game. Expect Cook to be heavily involved in the passing game. The Titans play the Pats so they will be throwing early and often.
6 to Sit
Peyton Manning - He will be rusty since this is his first game back, and he needs to prove that he can take a hit. The big thing here is to manage expectations. Don't expect the Peyton we are used to seeing. 200 yards and 2 td's is reasonable.
Reggie Bush - I know the Dolphins offense doesn't have any play-makers other than Bush, but they won't be running the ball much. The Texans should be up big forcing the Dolphins to pass, and their run-D is pretty good in the first place.
Marshawn Lynch - I don't trust him this week mostly because of the injury. He missed some time for back problems last year, and this is the same thing that might limit him this week. Expect the Russel Wilson show in this game.
DeSean Jackson - Don't expect much this week. The Browns have a great pass defense, so the Eagles will likely chose to use the ground game.
Dwayne Bowe - I am predicting a slow start for Bowe this year. He missed a lot of training camp, and this particular match-up positions him against Asante Samuel. Look for the Chiefs to stick to the running game in this one.
Jermaine Gresham - I like his ability for this season, but I do not like his role. The Bengals will use him to block a lot in this game. Also, the Ravens gave up the 2nd fewest points to TE's last season.
August 30, 2012
Studs & Duds - WR's
Studs
Julio Jones
His speed and size combo are elite and the Falcons like to throw the ball. He is an absolute burner and will make some big plays this season as he did last year. If he manages to stay healthy and avoid trouble with his hamstring, I see him not only passing up Roddy White for the best Falcons WR, but having a shot at finishing as a top 5 WR.
Percy Harvin
It took the Vikings a while to figure out that Harvin should be on the field more than 50% of the offensive plays, but when they did, he went off. His touches were the highest for WR's when Ponder started at QB so that is a positive statistic to pay attention to. Harvin is also in a contract year so the Vikings will want to see if he is a true #1 WR to determine if they should pay him accordingly. I envision a chance at a top 5 finish, but top 10 for sure.
Jeremy Maclin
Maclin has decent size and is also a speedster. He has great hands and is willing to run across the middle. As a WR, he has the talent to do a little bit of everything. I expect DeSean Jackson to rebound this year, but that will not affect Maclin's value. He is extremely talented and most importantly, finally healthy. He is in a contract year so expect him to be proving his worth every week.
Eric Decker
He could be emerging as Peyton Manning's favorite target late in the preseason. Decker was on the receiving end of Peyton's first two TD tosses. A very athletic WR with capable hands, he should benefit from being considered the #2 option on the team. Demaryius Thomas should get the #1 corner from opposing teams so Manning could be looking Decker's way often. Injuries have been a problem in his career, but the risk is worth it because Manning could elevate him to top 10 WR status.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
As far as late round fliers, this guy is as good as it gets. Take a look at his stats from week 7 on and you will see that Carson Palmer has found a reliable connection. He missed two games during that stretch so his total numbers don't reflect his great per game averages. He has a chance to break out this year because of his presence running shorter routes that allow him to track the ball better. 1,000 yards is not out of the question so for a late round sleeper, it doesn't get any better than this.
Duds
Andre Johnson
Health has been a problem for Johnson recently, which is why it is easy to not recommend him this year. The WR class is so deep meaning that there is no point wasting your 2nd round pick on a guy who more than likely will not play 16 games. One of the best talents in the game, but his age and injury history dictate that his risk is too great for the reward.
Dez Bryant
Lets be realistic, anyone who needs 3 babysitters at this age should not be counted on to lead your fantasy team. He has skills, but not the intangibles. I don't see a breakout coming until he can control his off field behavior.
Steve Smith
After a hot start last year, he quickly faded away when defenses started taking away the deep ball. Once that was taken away, Smith quickly fell of the fantasy map. Cam Newton is a work in progress throwing the ball so I don't see any improvement in Smith's fantasy stock even though he is the best receiving option. For the price it takes to acquire Smith, he's not worth it.
Vincent Jackson
Don't fall into the trap trying to buy into a free agent bust. The Bucs are a run first team and there is no change in sight from that philosophy. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly set the world on fire as a QB either. Jackson will continue to put up similar numbers to his tenure in San Diego with a chance for downside. Before the move to Tampa I would have said don't draft him because of his inconsistency from week to week. This year I would add to that his QB is bad and the offense is run first.
Greg Jennings
This is more a knock on the Packers' offense than Jennings. Rodgers spreads the ball around so much that Greg doesn't put up big numbers in any given week. You can expect a consist number of points, but generally not a large number. For having to draft him as the #5 WR I would say look elsewhere. As I mentioned before the WR talent is deep this year so spend that early draft pick on a RB and get a WR a round later that will put up very similar numbers to Jennings.
Julio Jones
His speed and size combo are elite and the Falcons like to throw the ball. He is an absolute burner and will make some big plays this season as he did last year. If he manages to stay healthy and avoid trouble with his hamstring, I see him not only passing up Roddy White for the best Falcons WR, but having a shot at finishing as a top 5 WR.
Percy Harvin
It took the Vikings a while to figure out that Harvin should be on the field more than 50% of the offensive plays, but when they did, he went off. His touches were the highest for WR's when Ponder started at QB so that is a positive statistic to pay attention to. Harvin is also in a contract year so the Vikings will want to see if he is a true #1 WR to determine if they should pay him accordingly. I envision a chance at a top 5 finish, but top 10 for sure.
Jeremy Maclin
Maclin has decent size and is also a speedster. He has great hands and is willing to run across the middle. As a WR, he has the talent to do a little bit of everything. I expect DeSean Jackson to rebound this year, but that will not affect Maclin's value. He is extremely talented and most importantly, finally healthy. He is in a contract year so expect him to be proving his worth every week.
Eric Decker
He could be emerging as Peyton Manning's favorite target late in the preseason. Decker was on the receiving end of Peyton's first two TD tosses. A very athletic WR with capable hands, he should benefit from being considered the #2 option on the team. Demaryius Thomas should get the #1 corner from opposing teams so Manning could be looking Decker's way often. Injuries have been a problem in his career, but the risk is worth it because Manning could elevate him to top 10 WR status.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
As far as late round fliers, this guy is as good as it gets. Take a look at his stats from week 7 on and you will see that Carson Palmer has found a reliable connection. He missed two games during that stretch so his total numbers don't reflect his great per game averages. He has a chance to break out this year because of his presence running shorter routes that allow him to track the ball better. 1,000 yards is not out of the question so for a late round sleeper, it doesn't get any better than this.
Duds
Andre Johnson
Health has been a problem for Johnson recently, which is why it is easy to not recommend him this year. The WR class is so deep meaning that there is no point wasting your 2nd round pick on a guy who more than likely will not play 16 games. One of the best talents in the game, but his age and injury history dictate that his risk is too great for the reward.
Dez Bryant
Lets be realistic, anyone who needs 3 babysitters at this age should not be counted on to lead your fantasy team. He has skills, but not the intangibles. I don't see a breakout coming until he can control his off field behavior.
Steve Smith
After a hot start last year, he quickly faded away when defenses started taking away the deep ball. Once that was taken away, Smith quickly fell of the fantasy map. Cam Newton is a work in progress throwing the ball so I don't see any improvement in Smith's fantasy stock even though he is the best receiving option. For the price it takes to acquire Smith, he's not worth it.
Vincent Jackson
Don't fall into the trap trying to buy into a free agent bust. The Bucs are a run first team and there is no change in sight from that philosophy. Josh Freeman doesn't exactly set the world on fire as a QB either. Jackson will continue to put up similar numbers to his tenure in San Diego with a chance for downside. Before the move to Tampa I would have said don't draft him because of his inconsistency from week to week. This year I would add to that his QB is bad and the offense is run first.
Greg Jennings
This is more a knock on the Packers' offense than Jennings. Rodgers spreads the ball around so much that Greg doesn't put up big numbers in any given week. You can expect a consist number of points, but generally not a large number. For having to draft him as the #5 WR I would say look elsewhere. As I mentioned before the WR talent is deep this year so spend that early draft pick on a RB and get a WR a round later that will put up very similar numbers to Jennings.
August 27, 2012
Studs & Duds - RB's
Studs
LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, & Ray Rice
These three will often be the top 3 picks in fantasy drafts this year. They are obviously in a league of their own.
Chris Johnson
I am a strong believer in a bounce back season. With a full camp and preseason, Johnson should be in shape and hungry to restore his reputation as one of the best RB's in the league. Add to that a more promising QB, a better O-line, and a playbook that features more of his trademark cutback plays and this is a recipe for success. The Titans are expected to decrease his carries a little bit, but this doesn't matter because of Johnson's effectiveness as a pass catcher. Expect big things, but probably not quite top 3 level like we were used to in 2010.
Darren McFadden
I expect a top 5 finish if not better from McFadden this year. That includes a buffer for missing two games due to an injury at some point. He is the unquestioned workhorse in Oakland, and Michael Bush isn't around anymore to steal goal line carries. The talent is there, just make sure to draft a suitable replacement for the time that McFadden will most likely miss this season.
Fred Jackson
After a broken leg ended his season, I expect Jackson to bounce back this year. The numbers he put up last year were amazing, and still he doesn't receive credit like he should. Buffalo isn't going to throw all day with Fitzpatrick at QB, and C.J. Spiller was less than impressive after taking over last year. At his current draft spot, I think Jackson provides the best value at the RB position.
David Wilson
Anyone who saw his latest preseason game against the Bears would agree with me on this one. Wilson looked great breaking off some long runs and catching some passes out of the backfield. I love the rookie this year because I think he will be working to slide into the lead back role for next season. He has the backup job locked up, so if Bradshaw goes down he will have his chance to start. Bradshaw is known for being a bit injury prone so Wilson will get his looks this year. Wilson is the RB to own for the Giants this year.
Duds
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is a scary pick this year. There is just too much risk to justify drafting him in the first or early second round, which is where he has been going. The possible suspension as well as a poor offensive line and offense in general don't bode well. We also don't know which Marshawn Lynch will show up. He went into full beast mode last year, but will he be the same? I'm not buying it. Regardless, his value is not that of a first or early second rounder.
Patriots' & Panthers' RB's
These two teams are the worst when it comes to RB splits. Do not ever draft any of these teams RB's as a starter on any team! Their consistency is so unpredictable that you will be sweating on game day for them to even break 10 yards. These two teams shuffle the workload so unpredictably that it is possible for them to put up a zero in any given week, which is the worst in fantasy football. Consistency is what is prized most, which is why these RB's should only be drafted for bye week fill-ins.
Trent Richardson
I love Trent Richardson's long term prospects, but this year I am not buying in. With a fellow rookie at QB, the learning curve is going to be steep. Add to that no real threats (Greg Little isn't that good) at WR, and defenses are sure to key in on Richardson. Coaches and ownership will want to preserve Richardson for a long career, so don't expect him to put up tons of carries when the games won't matter. Also, his knee surgery isn't the best way to start the season. I am skeptical of a lingering injury that won't allow him to be at full strength. The cards seem stacked against him this year.
Michael Turner
Turner's days as an elite back are done. This year he should be considered a #2 back. With his age and the Falcons' ability to throw the ball, there is no upside here. I would expect 15 carries a game from Turner; nothing more, nothing less. He managed only 2 100 yard games for the second half of the season last year which I think signals his slow down. I don't like drafting guys with no upside, but then again he should have a floor of about 15 carries a game. Just know what you are getting in Turner this year.
Mark Ingram
The former 1st round pick is starting to look like a bust. He has had multiple knee and toe surgeries in his short career which should bring up some red flags. Also bring into consideration the fact that when he is healthy, he gets about 10 carries a game. These numbers shouldn't change this year, and any breakout ideas can be forgotten.
August 19, 2012
Studs & Duds - QB's
Studs
Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady
These two QB's are definitely above the rest of the pack. Each offense has so many explosive weapons, and the consistency has been there for years for each of these guys. I leave Brees out of this category this year because of the off-season scandal the Saints have been dealing with, and he also just received a huge new contract. Brady and Rodgers are so consistent and reliable that they should each be valued as a first round pick. The only goal of the first round is to not lose the league based on your pick. The consistency Brady and Rodgers provide should not be overlooked.
Phillip Rivers
His stock has never been this low before. He had one of his worst statistical years last year, but it was still good enough to rank 9th among QB's. Worst year and finishing in the top 10? Not to mention he is going for about 20% of the price of the top QB's. Rivers has plenty of options to throw to still even with Vincent Jackson gone. Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Vincent Brown are all quality targets. The Chargers will not get away from throwing the ball because Ryan Mathews has proven that he cannot stay healthy. Rivers is a very safe pick if you miss out on one of the top tier QB's, and selecting him can allow you to use a pick or auction dollars on other positions.
Carson Palmer
I wouldn't count on having Palmer as your starting QB just yet, but last year he showed that he can still play. From November on, he finished in the top 10 in many major passing categories. With promising WR's Moore and Heyward-Bey, Palmer can do some damage. Darren McFadden should also help out Palmer's stock. McFadden is one of the best backs in the game when healthy, but the Raiders can't afford to have him out there every play because of how injury prone he is. McFadden should provide the threat to keep defenses honest, but Palmer will get plenty of chances to throw to keep McFadden fresh. Use Palmer as an insurance policy and backup with some high upside.
Michael Vick
After the miracle season in 2010, the big question heading into the 2011 drafts was "should Vick be the No. 1 pick?" Anyone who did make him the No. 1 pick made a mistake. Vick is very injury prone, so when drafting him make sure to have a good backup (i.e. Carson Palmer). It is clear that Vick was over-valued last year. This year it seems like people have forgotten that he has the ability to be a top 5 QB. I would compare his value to that of Darren McFadden; top 5 potential, but the injury risk is very real. Overall, expect Vick's value to be between last year and his 2010 campaign. Be smart, buy low on him now.
Duds
Eli Manning
Matthew Berry makes a great case against Eli Manning this year. He references Eli in his "Love/Hate" Column. Eli has great weapons in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, but the Giants have been a running team and will get back to that again this year. The stats he put up last year were a career year, which is another reason to stay away from him. His stock has never been higher, so ask yourself: Do you want to buy into a player when their value has reached its peak, or should you save a pick or some auction dollars and get someone who will put up the same fantasy stats? (Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers will produce identical numbers and are going much cheaper/later)
Peyton Manning
A healthy Peyton Manning is a no question top 10 QB even at this point in his career. Right now, perception is placing too much value on him right now. He didn't play a game last season, and I am not convinced that one hit could end his career by tweaking his neck. He has also played in a dome for the majority of his career, and he is now moving outside in Denver. The risk is just too high for where Peyton is being drafted this year. There are much safer plays to go with on the board.
Matt Schaub
I really do like the Texans, but I don't think that Matt Schaub is going to have much to offer this year for fantasy value. This is Arian Foster's offense now. Also, Andre Johnson can't be counted on like he used to be. His talent is there, but he is a major injury risk. Schaub doesn't have much to throw to this year other than Andre (when healthy) and a finally healthy Owen Daniels. With so much success on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, Matt Schaub won't be called on to provide an aerial assault this season.
Andy Dalton
Don't get me wrong, I love and Dalton. As a rookie, he was phenomenal. I think that he has a great career ahead of him, but his role is more of a game manager. He makes the throws when he needs to, but he won't be throwing the ball all day long. I think we should expect a small improvement from last year in terms of fantasy points, but expect consistency from Dalton not high scoring numbers. Dalton is a great QB that will win games for Cincinnati, he just isn't the fantasy football type of QB.
Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady
These two QB's are definitely above the rest of the pack. Each offense has so many explosive weapons, and the consistency has been there for years for each of these guys. I leave Brees out of this category this year because of the off-season scandal the Saints have been dealing with, and he also just received a huge new contract. Brady and Rodgers are so consistent and reliable that they should each be valued as a first round pick. The only goal of the first round is to not lose the league based on your pick. The consistency Brady and Rodgers provide should not be overlooked.
Phillip Rivers
His stock has never been this low before. He had one of his worst statistical years last year, but it was still good enough to rank 9th among QB's. Worst year and finishing in the top 10? Not to mention he is going for about 20% of the price of the top QB's. Rivers has plenty of options to throw to still even with Vincent Jackson gone. Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Vincent Brown are all quality targets. The Chargers will not get away from throwing the ball because Ryan Mathews has proven that he cannot stay healthy. Rivers is a very safe pick if you miss out on one of the top tier QB's, and selecting him can allow you to use a pick or auction dollars on other positions.
Carson Palmer
I wouldn't count on having Palmer as your starting QB just yet, but last year he showed that he can still play. From November on, he finished in the top 10 in many major passing categories. With promising WR's Moore and Heyward-Bey, Palmer can do some damage. Darren McFadden should also help out Palmer's stock. McFadden is one of the best backs in the game when healthy, but the Raiders can't afford to have him out there every play because of how injury prone he is. McFadden should provide the threat to keep defenses honest, but Palmer will get plenty of chances to throw to keep McFadden fresh. Use Palmer as an insurance policy and backup with some high upside.
Michael Vick
After the miracle season in 2010, the big question heading into the 2011 drafts was "should Vick be the No. 1 pick?" Anyone who did make him the No. 1 pick made a mistake. Vick is very injury prone, so when drafting him make sure to have a good backup (i.e. Carson Palmer). It is clear that Vick was over-valued last year. This year it seems like people have forgotten that he has the ability to be a top 5 QB. I would compare his value to that of Darren McFadden; top 5 potential, but the injury risk is very real. Overall, expect Vick's value to be between last year and his 2010 campaign. Be smart, buy low on him now.
Duds
Eli Manning
Matthew Berry makes a great case against Eli Manning this year. He references Eli in his "Love/Hate" Column. Eli has great weapons in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, but the Giants have been a running team and will get back to that again this year. The stats he put up last year were a career year, which is another reason to stay away from him. His stock has never been higher, so ask yourself: Do you want to buy into a player when their value has reached its peak, or should you save a pick or some auction dollars and get someone who will put up the same fantasy stats? (Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers will produce identical numbers and are going much cheaper/later)
Peyton Manning
A healthy Peyton Manning is a no question top 10 QB even at this point in his career. Right now, perception is placing too much value on him right now. He didn't play a game last season, and I am not convinced that one hit could end his career by tweaking his neck. He has also played in a dome for the majority of his career, and he is now moving outside in Denver. The risk is just too high for where Peyton is being drafted this year. There are much safer plays to go with on the board.
Matt Schaub
I really do like the Texans, but I don't think that Matt Schaub is going to have much to offer this year for fantasy value. This is Arian Foster's offense now. Also, Andre Johnson can't be counted on like he used to be. His talent is there, but he is a major injury risk. Schaub doesn't have much to throw to this year other than Andre (when healthy) and a finally healthy Owen Daniels. With so much success on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, Matt Schaub won't be called on to provide an aerial assault this season.
Andy Dalton
Don't get me wrong, I love and Dalton. As a rookie, he was phenomenal. I think that he has a great career ahead of him, but his role is more of a game manager. He makes the throws when he needs to, but he won't be throwing the ball all day long. I think we should expect a small improvement from last year in terms of fantasy points, but expect consistency from Dalton not high scoring numbers. Dalton is a great QB that will win games for Cincinnati, he just isn't the fantasy football type of QB.
August 17, 2012
Auction Draft Tips
One of the new fads for fantasy football for the last couple of years has been the auction draft. It has become very popular; to the point where every league that I am a member of does an auction draft. The ESPN standard budget for an auction draft is $200, and the standard league is 10 teams which are the two assumptions I will be basing these recommendations on. There are two main strategies for an auction: go big on 2 or 3 players, or spread your money out and go for value. I have seen competitive teams fielded with both strategies, but I think spreading your money out and going for value is the most consistent at producing a winning team.
Each year, I look at the positions with low depth for areas that I am willing to overspend on. This year, QB and TE have premium players at the top, but are not very deep. This is where you should spend your money this year! I try to spread my money around by taking two players in the $30 range, a couple at $20, and the rest at whatever value they fall to. This year, I would feel comfortable spending around $50 on a Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Stafford at QB. They are THAT GOOD. Ideally I would go for Stafford because I think he will not require the premium price the other QB's will. TE is the other area I would feel comfortable spending $30 or more on Jimmy Graham at. Many favor Gronkowski, but he is overvalued right now and you will be paying too much to get him. Once you secure your QB and TE, then you draft value on RB's and WR. DON'T overpay for a WR this year. The talent is very deep at this position. RB are not what they used to be. I do not feel comfortable placing the burden of a $60 price tag on a first round RB because there is so much injury risk to the position. Split that money among Stephen Jackson and Fred Jackson and you get two starters and money left over. The last bit of advice I would give is to spend only $1 on a kicker and defense. If you really like a team and spend $2 or $3 to get their defense I understand, you want your favorites so that isn't the end of the world. Anything other than that and you are wasting money. Also, NEVER draft a second defense or kicker! With all of this to consider, I will leave you with an example team that I would be thrilled to have. I will post their projected ESPN value because it is impossible to simulate who will go for more than projected in each individual league.
10 Team $200 budget
QB Matt Stafford - $45
RB Stephen Jackson - $25
RB Fred Jackson - $23
Flex Jeremy Maclin - $15
WR Julio Jones - $23
WR Percy Harvin - $15
TE Jimmy Graham - $32
K Anyone that kicks in a dome $1
DEF Anyone other than the Vikings $1
BE Peyton Hillis $7
BE David Wilson $5
BE Backup QB $1 (Josh Freeman is projected $4, but would be a steal if you could get him)
BE High Upside RB/WR $2
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside WR $3
Following this format will guarantee you a team that is competitive every week. All you need is one of your upside picks to contribute to the team. I hope this helps, good luck!
Each year, I look at the positions with low depth for areas that I am willing to overspend on. This year, QB and TE have premium players at the top, but are not very deep. This is where you should spend your money this year! I try to spread my money around by taking two players in the $30 range, a couple at $20, and the rest at whatever value they fall to. This year, I would feel comfortable spending around $50 on a Rodgers, Brady, Brees or Stafford at QB. They are THAT GOOD. Ideally I would go for Stafford because I think he will not require the premium price the other QB's will. TE is the other area I would feel comfortable spending $30 or more on Jimmy Graham at. Many favor Gronkowski, but he is overvalued right now and you will be paying too much to get him. Once you secure your QB and TE, then you draft value on RB's and WR. DON'T overpay for a WR this year. The talent is very deep at this position. RB are not what they used to be. I do not feel comfortable placing the burden of a $60 price tag on a first round RB because there is so much injury risk to the position. Split that money among Stephen Jackson and Fred Jackson and you get two starters and money left over. The last bit of advice I would give is to spend only $1 on a kicker and defense. If you really like a team and spend $2 or $3 to get their defense I understand, you want your favorites so that isn't the end of the world. Anything other than that and you are wasting money. Also, NEVER draft a second defense or kicker! With all of this to consider, I will leave you with an example team that I would be thrilled to have. I will post their projected ESPN value because it is impossible to simulate who will go for more than projected in each individual league.
10 Team $200 budget
QB Matt Stafford - $45
RB Stephen Jackson - $25
RB Fred Jackson - $23
Flex Jeremy Maclin - $15
WR Julio Jones - $23
WR Percy Harvin - $15
TE Jimmy Graham - $32
K Anyone that kicks in a dome $1
DEF Anyone other than the Vikings $1
BE Peyton Hillis $7
BE David Wilson $5
BE Backup QB $1 (Josh Freeman is projected $4, but would be a steal if you could get him)
BE High Upside RB/WR $2
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside RB $1
BE High Upside WR $3
Following this format will guarantee you a team that is competitive every week. All you need is one of your upside picks to contribute to the team. I hope this helps, good luck!
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