This is the first Pick 6 post of the season so I will explain how it works a little bit. Each week I am going to pick 6 guys that I think will put up great numbers each week and 6 guys that I think are going to put up sub-par numbers. I am going to try to focus on people that may be on the bubble for who you might start each week on a fantasy team. So for example, I don't want to waste your time by telling you to start Calvin Johnson because he is a must start each week. Week 1 is the hardest to predict, but here we go...
6 to Start
DeAngelo Williams - Start him this week because I probably won't be recommending this again all year. He plays against Tampa Bay this week and if anyone remembers anything about their defense from last year it was that they can't stop the run. Add to that Jonathan Stewart being banged up and it is looking like D-Willy will get more touches than usual this week.
Doug Martin - Sticking with the TB vs CAR game, I think it will feature a lot of running. Tampa Bay's identity was a run first team last year, and that should continue against a Carolina team that is below average against the run. Martin seems to have a sizable lead on the workload over Blount so expect a lot of touches.
Jay Cutler - I am not a huge Cutler fan, but this week he gets to face off against the Colts. This defense was absolutely terrible last year and it didn't improve much in the off-season. Expect him to test out his new toy Brandon Marshall in this game. The only foreseeable problem in this one could be the Bears getting up early and not throwing as much in the second half.
Antonio Brown - Mike Wallace missed almost the entire pre-season so he will still be getting used to the offense. Todd Haley runs a more conservative offense which will play well to Brown's shorter routes. The offensive line has also been shaky so this should also be a reason to go shorter routes in this game.
Darrius Heyward-Bey - With many injuries in the WR corps in Oakland, he may be the only one to throw to this weekend. He has some breakout potential this season, and looks to be the #1 target this weekend. As long as Carson Palmer plays better than he has in the pre-season, expect Heyward-Bey to take off this weekend.
Jared Cook - This offense has to throw to somebody. Nate Washington isn't the most reliable #1 target, and Kendall Wright is playing in his first regular season game. Expect Cook to be heavily involved in the passing game. The Titans play the Pats so they will be throwing early and often.
6 to Sit
Peyton Manning - He will be rusty since this is his first game back, and he needs to prove that he can take a hit. The big thing here is to manage expectations. Don't expect the Peyton we are used to seeing. 200 yards and 2 td's is reasonable.
Reggie Bush - I know the Dolphins offense doesn't have any play-makers other than Bush, but they won't be running the ball much. The Texans should be up big forcing the Dolphins to pass, and their run-D is pretty good in the first place.
Marshawn Lynch - I don't trust him this week mostly because of the injury. He missed some time for back problems last year, and this is the same thing that might limit him this week. Expect the Russel Wilson show in this game.
DeSean Jackson - Don't expect much this week. The Browns have a great pass defense, so the Eagles will likely chose to use the ground game.
Dwayne Bowe - I am predicting a slow start for Bowe this year. He missed a lot of training camp, and this particular match-up positions him against Asante Samuel. Look for the Chiefs to stick to the running game in this one.
Jermaine Gresham - I like his ability for this season, but I do not like his role. The Bengals will use him to block a lot in this game. Also, the Ravens gave up the 2nd fewest points to TE's last season.
Would like to see a reply of the Panther game. I put all my chips on D Willy and came up busto.
ReplyDeleteI was as surprised as you on this one. Carolina abandoned the run altogether. Even Cam Newton didn't run much. The team ran the ball 13 times the entire game which is an absurdly low number. They were only able to get 0.8 yards per attempt so trailing the Bucs, they probably thought there best option was through the air. The Bucs were one of the worst defenses last year and they just came out to play in this one. Week 1 calls are the hardest to make and especially bubble players. I'm going to stick to making calls on bubble players because its no use telling you to start Calvin Johnson and Ray Rice each week. I would give myself a B for this weeks calls, hopefully I can be more helpful next week!
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